As Covid-19 cases get reported from across the country, its surveillance should involve monitoring of hospitalization and deaths from Covid, and not through classical surveillance where numbers are important, says Dr Raman Gangakhedkar, former scientist with the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR), and a familiar face from the pandemic briefings (2020).
“Numbers are not going to tell you as much because, if you provide Covid test(s) to as many people, the numbers are going to come high,” Gangakhedkar told businessline, of the highly transmissible but reportedly mild virus variant. Surveillance on hospitalisation-based morbidity and mortality will reveal if the new variant causes severe disease or increases the risk of death, explains the scientist, now Distinguished Professor with Symbiosis International (Pune).
“There is no evidence so far that these new variants are increasing the risk of hospitalisation and death at this point in time,” he added.
India has crossed 1000 Covid-19 cases, according to Government data – Kerala (430 ) , Maharashtra (210) and Delhi (104), Gujarat (83), Tamil Nadu (69), as on Monday (May 26th morning). The six deaths reported include three from Maharashtra, where State health authorities have pointed to severe underlying health conditions.
On the rising numbers, ICMR Director General Dr Rajiv Bahl said they were monitoring the situation through the Integrated Disease Surveillance Programme, that tracks cases nationwide, a PTI report said. “Cases have been rising, first in southern India, then in western India, and now in northern India.,” he said, adding that they were monitoring how transmissible the virus was, whether it was evading existing immunity (natural or vaccine-induced), besides examining the percentage of severe cases, the report said. “If a new variant emerges, it may affect previous immunity, but at the moment, there is nothing to be worried about,” the report added. “So far, the severity remains low. There’s no cause for panic,” the report said.
Gangakhedkar further explains, that Covid-19 is endemic, and is getting detected as people testing for different illnesses, also get tested for Covid-19. Seasonal changes have brought in more testing, he adds. The variant being reported is part of the Omicron family – that was highly transmissible, but had not increased severity or risk of death as compared to the Delta variant, he points out.
Who’s vulnerable?
The elderly and those with an uncontrolled chronic condition (where immunity is compromised) should follow “Covid appropriate behaviour” – avoid crowded places, mask-up if in contact with someone who is infected, or showing respiratory symptoms, besides following basic hygiene.
Explaining “transmission dynamics”, he said, if there is a higher transmission efficiency, the wave tends to last for a shorter period. “Now by the time you take (the) vaccine, that particular strain’s outbreak must have gone and there is a new strain that is coming,” he says, responding to concerns on the need for possible booster shots.
Published on May 26, 2025