New Delhi:
Voting for the 2024 Maharashtra Assembly election may be over – the single-phase poll was held Wednesday – but verbal jousting betwixt the ruling Mahayuti and the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi rumbles on, with each hotly disputing last night’s exit polls and proclaiming grand wins for their parties.
Five of nine exit polls studied by NDTV indicate the Mahayuti will ease to victory. Three believe neither side will gain a clear advantage. And only one exit pollster gives the MVA an outright win.
But a health warning: exit polls often get it wrong, as they did in Haryana and Jammu and Kashmir; in the former the Congress was declared the winner, while the Congress-National Conference alliance was favoured in the latter. As it turned out, the BJP won Haryana and the NC (on its own) swept J&K.
READ | Mahayuti Has Edge In Maharashtra But 3 Of 9 Exit Polls Predict Hung House
However, ahead of the counting of votes on Saturday, the BJP, the Congress, and the Shiv Sena and Nationalist Congress Party factions have come out swinging to claim victory for themselves.
Mahayuti vs MVA Over Exit Polls
For the BJP, outgoing Deputy Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis pointed triumphantly at the increased voting percentage across Maharashtra and said, “…whenever the percentage increases, it benefits the BJP and the alliance. I am confident we will benefit this time too.”
Maharashtra recorded an estimated 65 per cent turnout; the 2019 figure was 61.74 per cent. The rule of thumb is that large (or larger) voter turnouts spell trouble for the incumbent party.
Mr Fadnavis, though, argued the opposite, insisting, “Increase in voting percentage means it is in favour of the current government… it means people are supporting the current government.”
On the other side of the fence is Sena MP Sanjay Raut, ex-Chief Minister Uddhav Thackeray’s troubleshooter, who declared exit polls a “fraud” and insisted the MVA will win this election.
Mr Raut pointed to wrong predictions for the Haryana and J&K elections, and the April-June federal election, in which the BJP was widely expected to cross the 400-seat mark but was pegged by back by the Congress-led INDIA opposition bloc, which includes the Thackeray Sena.
“Look… people do not always speak their mind (about whom they voted for). So, someone says ‘we will take a sample of 4,000 people and say this person is winning, that person is winning’… but the result is different. They said Congress would win Haryana but what happened? They said Modiji would get 400 seats in the Lok Sabha… but what happened there? You will see… we will win 160-165 seats,” he said.
It isn’t just Mr Fadnavis and Mr Raut who have been talking up their alliance’s chances.
Shinde Sena leader Shaina NC mocked her rivals, saying, “… your boat has sunk.”
The Congress’ Maharashtra unit boss, Nana Patole, is equally insistent the MVA will triumph, declaring voters are “angry with the BJP alliance” and praising the voting percentage increase.
READ | “Defeat Predicted, Will Win”: Nana Patole On Maharashtra Exit Polls
The BJP’s Milind Deora was equally convinced about a victory of the Mahayuti. “I am not into numbers… but we will definitely win”. The reason for his confidence, he told NDTV, was the alliance worked its way back from the Lok Sabha setback and “left no stones unturned” to ensure victory.
The Maharashtra Election Numbers Game
The Maharashtra Assembly has 288 seats. The majority mark is 145.
An average of exit polls gives the BJP’s coalition – which includes the Sena faction led by Chief Minister Eknath Shinde and the NCP group led by Ajit Pawar – 150 seats. The Congress and its allies – the Sena and NCP factions of Mr Thackeray and Sharad Pawar – have been given 125.
READ | Advantage BJP+ In Maharashtra, Close Fight In Jharkhand: Exit Polls
The only outlier is Electoral Edge, which says the MVA will get 150 seats and the Mahayuti 118.
What Happened In 2019?
The 2019 Maharashtra election resulted in a thumping win for the BJP and (then undivided) Sena; the saffron party won 105 seats (down 17 from 2014) and its ally 56 (down seven).
However, two long-time allies fell out, quite spectacularly, in the following days after they failed to agree a power-sharing deal. Mr Thackeray then led his Sena into a surprise alliance with the Congress and Sharad Pawar’s NCP (then also undivided) to shut out a furious BJP.
Much to the surprise of many, the ruling tripartite alliance lasted for nearly three years despite the divergent political beliefs and ideologies of the Sena and the Congress-NCP.
Eventually, it was an internal rebellion led by Mr Shinde that ousted the MVA government. He led Sena lawmakers into a deal with the BJP, forcing Mr Thackeray to resign and was named Chief Minister.
Since then, Maharashtra politics has been roiled in controversy that extended to the Supreme Court, which heard petitions and cross-petitions on disqualification of MLAs and, in the build-up to this election, pleas on which Sena and NCP faction is the ‘real’ one.
The NCP split a year later in a near-identical process that saw Ajit Pawar and lawmakers loyal to him joining the BJP-Shinde Sena, and he then became a Deputy Chief Minister.
With input from agencies
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