What was once a symbol of cooperation in a fractured subcontinent threatens to become the first casualty in a new kind of conflict — where water, not just land or ideology, becomes the battlefield.
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PRASHANTH VISHWANATHAN
After signing the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), then Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru stood before Parliament and declared, “We purchased a settlement, if you like; we purchased peace to that extent and it is good for both countries.”
That peace — bought at a cost, held in fragile hands — has endured decades of fire and fury. The IWT withstood the blaze of the 1965 and 1971 wars, the icy heights of Kargil, the tremors following the 2001 Parliament attack, the horror of 26/11 in Mumbai, and wave after wave of terror strikes in Jammu and Kashmir. Through it all, India never tore up the treaty, never disrespected the delicate balance it upheld. As the upper riparian, India bore the weight of responsibility — silently, steadfastly.
But with the blood of tourists spilled once again in Jammu and Kashmir, the tide has shifted. India’s move to suspend the IWT marks not just a break in a long-standing commitment, but the opening of a new and dangerous front in the Indo–Pakistan conflict.
India suspends Indus Waters Treaty with Pakistan | What it means & why it matters
On April 23, 2025, India announced a dramatic shift in its water diplomacy—placing the Indus Waters Treaty “in abeyance” with immediate effect. The landmark 1960 agreement, which governs the distribution of the Indus river system between India and Pakistan, is now in limbo following a deadly terror attack in Jammu & Kashmir that claimed 26 lives. In this detailed explainer, we unpack what the Indus Waters Treaty is and why it has served as a pillar of stability for over 60 years, how India’s decision could affect Pakistan’s agriculture and water supply, and the changes India can now implement in its hydropower and dam operations. We also examine why India believes cross-border terrorism justifies suspending the treaty, the legal framework under the Vienna Convention that allows for such a move, and what this development signals for the future of India-Pakistan relations. From the future of river inspections to the fate of downstream regions in Pakistan, this decision could reshape South Asia’s geopolitical landscape. Watch now to understand the full implications of India’s bold step—and what could happen next.Video Credit: Businessline
Jammu Kashmir and Water
The IWT was signed in 1960 with Pakistan, concerning the use of waters of the Indus system of rivers. The Treaty extends to main rivers of Indus basin — i.e. Sutlej, Beas, Ravi (Eastern Rivers) and Jhelum, Chenab and Indus (Western Rivers) including their tributaries and sub-tributaries and other water bodies. All the waters of the Eastern Rivers were allocated to India for its unrestricted use while India is under obligation to let flow all the waters of the Western Rivers, except for the domestic, non-consumptive and other uses permitted in the Treaty.
Data shows that of the total water of the Indus river basin, 80 per cent flows to Pakistan via the Western Rivers, while only 20 per cent flows through the Eastern Rivers. In Pakistan, water has been increasingly politicised, with leaders linking it to the Kashmir conflict. Prominent figures, including military and political leaders, have framed Kashmir as a vital element to Pakistan’s water security, arguing that losing it would threaten the country’s agricultural economy. Statements by leaders such as Syed Salahuddin and Sardar Mohamad Anwar Khan underscore the narrative that Kashmir is essential for sustaining Pakistan’s water resources, portraying the conflict as a struggle for survival in the face of potential water scarcity.
End of Treaty?
Amit Ranjan, Research Fellow at the Institute of South Asian Studies, National University of Singapore, told businessline that the Indian government’s current stance almost signals a move towards the end of the IWT, as Pakistan is least likely to satisfactorily meet the conditions set by India. While India has refrained from using the term “abrogation,” Ranjan noted that it is a move towards that direction, and the implications are likely to be the same unless the government decides otherwise.
“Although India has announced the suspension of the IWT, it currently lacks big infrastructures needed to divert the water and prevent it from flowing into Pakistan. Constructing such large-scale infrastructure will take considerable time,” he said. Ranjan also emphasised that any diversion of water from the Western Rivers would have a significant impact on Pakistan, which is already grappling with a water stress situation
He pointed out that the World Bank is a party to specific articles and annexures of the IWT. Under the present circumstances, Pakistan has limited political and legal options. Ranjan underscored that despite complaints from both countries, the IWT has long been regarded as one of the most successful treaties between adversarial countries.
Impact on Pakistan
Naseer Memon, Islamabad-based expert on water governance and climate change said, “Pakistan is not vulnerable to any immediate serious impact on its water resources as India doesn’t have water storage/diversion infrastructure on Western Rivers of Pakistan. However, in the medium and long term, if the situation persists, flows from Western Rivers could be negatively affect Pakistan”.
Memon added, “India’s unilateral suspension of IWT is an act of aggression. Pakistan could be deprived of sharing of data of water flows from Indian side. Pakistan needs to remain vigilant in the coming monsoon when India may release its surplus flows of Eastern Rivers without intimation and potentially causing flood in Pakistan”.
Within Pakistan, struggle for water has already intensified for the last few years. People in Sindh have been protesting the planned construction of six canals on the Indus, fearing it will worsen the province’s severe water shortages. The canals, with a ₹211 billion budget, aim to supply water to South Punjab’s Cholistan region. However, Sindh, already facing 40–45 per cent annual water shortages and a history of devastating droughts, could suffer further. As a lower riparian province, it depends heavily on Indus River water, and residents warn that the new canals will exacerbate the crisis for its 60 million residents.
As the rivers of the Indus continue to flow — untamed, unforgiving and deeply political — the fragile peace purchased in 1960 now teeters on the edge. What was once a symbol of cooperation in a fractured subcontinent threatens to become the first casualty in a new kind of conflict — where water, not just land or ideology, becomes the battlefield. The Indus may have carved civilisations, but now, it may just carve the contours of confrontation.
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Published on April 24, 2025