Between 2018 and 2020, the region saw an annual average of 169 terrorist incidents and 78 deaths among security forces.
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The brutal terrorist attack on tourists in Baisaran, Pahalgam, comes at a time when official data underscores the Indian government’s efforts to restore peace and prosperity in Jammu & Kashmir, marked by a sharp and sustained decline in terrorist incidents over the past six years. From 228 attacks in 2018 to just two in the first three months of 2024, the near 99 per cent drop had been hailed as a sign of emerging stability in the region. The government’s push for normalcy is further reflected in the significant reduction in civilian and security force casualties, as well as militant activity. The latest attack, however, serves as a stark and unsettling reminder of the challenges that remain.
The Ministry of Home Affairs data shows that the year 2018 was among the bloodiest in recent history, with 91 security personnel and 55 civilians killed in 228 terrorist attacks in the region. In stark contrast, no security personnel have lost their lives in terrorist violence in 2024 (up to March), and only two civilians have been reported dead. The shift is not abrupt but the result of a steady, year-on-year decline in violent incidents and fatalities.
Efficient action by security agencies
Between 2018 and 2020, the region saw an annual average of 169 terrorist incidents and 78 deaths among security forces. This period was also marked by an aggressive counter-terrorism strategy, with over 136 operations annually and an average of 211 terrorists killed each year. These numbers began to change notably in 2021, when terrorist incidents dropped to 129 and continued to fall sharply in subsequent years — reaching 46 in 2023. The number of counter-terror operations also decreased proportionately, suggesting more targeted and efficient action by security agencies.
The efficacy of these operations is visible in the improved kill ratios. In 2020, nearly 1.87 terrorists were killed for every counter-terror operation conducted — the highest such ratio recorded in the dataset. Even as the number of operations declined in subsequent years, the success rate remained relatively high, with 1.52 terrorists neutralized per operation in 2023. This suggests a transition from reactive engagement to proactive precision in the region’s counter-terror efforts.
The civilian death toll also saw a significant drop. From 55 in 2018, the number of civilian casualties fell steadily to 14 in 2023. This trend highlights not just operational efficiency but also a heightened focus on minimising collateral damage.
Economy Track
The government’s efforts to stabilise Jammu & Kashmir are also reflected in the region’s economic performance. According to the Ministry of Home Affairs’ Annual Report for 2023–24, Jammu & Kashmir’s economy remains on a positive trajectory, with the Gross State Domestic Product (GSDP) for the financial year 2023–24 projected to grow at 7.4 per cent.
The GSDP for 2022–23 (First Revised Estimate) at current prices is estimated at ₹2,24,226 crore, up from ₹1,93,352 crore in 2021–22 and ₹1,67,793 crore in 2020–21. The per capita GSDP has also shown consistent growth. It was ₹1,25,546 in 2020–21, ₹1,43,596 in 2021–22 (Second Revised Estimate), and ₹1,65,334 in 2022–23, indicating steady economic improvement and increased income levels in the region.
Experts fear that terror attack could put a break to the economic development which would harm the locals.
Sustained Shift or Temporary Lull?
A comparison between the periods 2018–2020 and 2021–2024 shows a stark difference in the scale and intensity of violence. The earlier period was marked by an average of 169 incidents per year, while the latter period has seen that number nearly halved.
While the data from the first quarter of 2024 only offers a limited view, the trendlines over the last six years are unmistakable. The sharp decline in terrorist activity and fatalities among security forces and civilians alike suggests that Jammu & Kashmir may be entering a more stable phase. Whether this marks a sustained shift or a temporary lull remains to be seen, but the data indicators point toward a significant reduction in conflict.
This transformation has come at a considerable human cost — 338 security personnel and 225 civilians lost their lives between 2018 and 2023.
Published on April 23, 2025