New Delhi:
Eknath Shinde‘s Shiv Sena faction, and the Nationalist Congress Party offshoot led by Ajit Pawar, flipped 75 seats – from their parent parties to the pocket of allies Bharatiya Janata Party – to ensure that the ruling Mahayuti alliance dominated the 2024 Maharashtra Assembly election.
The flip underlines the impact of the Sena and NCP split – the former in 2022 and the latter a year later – on the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi. Sans those 75 seats, it couldn’t counter a BJP that won 134 of 149 seats for a strike rate of 89.2 per cent – and recorded its best solo score in a Maharashtra election.
The MVA was decimated – after claiming victory in the April-June federal election, in which it won 30 of the state’s 48 Lok Sabha seats – and finished with only 45 to its name. The gap is 89 – almost exactly the number that the Shinde Sena and Ajit Pawar’s NCP won off their parent parties.
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Its solo show aside, the BJP will still need the Shinde Sena and Ajit Pawar’s seats to cross the majority mark of 145. And it is those two that will put its larger ally absolutely out of reach of the MVA.
Overall, the Shinde Sena and Ajit Pawar are on course to win 98 seats.
Where Did The 98 Come From?
Only a small chunk – less than two dozen overall – comes from winnings seats contested by other parties (mostly the BJP or Congress) in 2019 and given to the Shinde Sena and Ajit Pawar this time.
The rest have been flipped from their parent parties.
The Shinde Sena and Ajit Pawar’s NCP contested 81 and 59 seats in this election, and they are leading in 57 (47 wins, 10 leads) and 41 (37 wins, four leads), respectively.
On the other side, Thackeray’s Sena contested 95 seats but is leading only in 20 (18 wins, two leads), and Sharad Pawar’s NCP contested 86 seats but won only 11.
Of the Shinde Sena’s 57 leads+wins, 40 were won by the undivided Sena in the 2019 election.
Similarly, of Ajit Pawar’s NCP’s 37 leads+wins, 35 were won by Sharad Pawar’s NCP.
Had the Sena and NCP not split, it would have handed the MVA those 75 seats.
These would not, perhaps, have been enough for the Maha Vikas Aghadi to win this election, but it would certainly have been enough to push the BJP to a much closer finish.
The ‘Legacy’ Question Settled?
After the Sena and NCP split of 2022 and 2023, the burning question was about legacy.
Mr Shinde claimed he forced the Sena division because he felt Uddhav Thackeray had ‘abandoned’ the ideology of his late father and party founder Bal Thackeray. Mr Thackeray hotly denounced that claim but this election was widely seen as a crucial test of identity – who is the ‘real’ Shiv Sena?
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Based on these results, it would appear to be Mr Shinde’s camp, which has lost no time in claiming that title. His son, Shrikant Shinde, was among the first to do so (with a swipe at Mr Thackeray). “Shiv Sena is not a private company… people have shown who is taking Balasaheb’s ideals forward,” he said.
It wasn’t just the Shinde Sena that moved to claim the title.
Devendra Fadnavis – who joined Mr Shinde in playing coy when asked who would become the next Chief Minister – declared, after the result was settled, “The people of Maharashtra have shown that the party headed by Eknath Shinde is the real Shiv Sena of Balasaheb Thackeray.”
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But perhaps the biggest sting at the Thackeray Sena came from Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who, during campaigning, endorsed Mr Shinde’s claim and called Mr Thackeray a “fake child”.
The same question – which is the ‘real’ party after the split – also appears to have been settled for the NCP, which broke after Ajit Pawar’s rebellion. But for Pawar junior, who led an earlier failed rebellion, the issue has been more about stepping out of the (very) large shadow of his uncle, Sharad Pawar.
This is Sharad Pawar’s worst ever election result and it focuses attention on his big statement earlier this month; the veteran said he had no plans to contest any more elections and might even retire when his Rajya Sabha term ends in 18 months. This loss might prompt him to move that deadline up.
This was, perhaps, more of an existential battle for the Pawars than it was for the Shiv Sena.
READ | For Sharad Pawar, This Maharashtra Election Defeat Was Personal
In the April-June federal election, the first major poll after the split, Sharad Pawar won out. A second consecutive win over his nephew’s rebel faction, particularly with a legal battle over his party’s electoral symbol still playing out in the Supreme Court, could have crushed the Ajit Pawar NCP.
But that was not to be.
Ultimately, however, in politics nothing is ever certain.
Yes, the Thackeray Sena and Sharad Pawar’s NCP were trounced today, but both are canny politicians who still hold considerable influence in Maharashtra political circles. But if they are to mount a comeback then that starts today, for they need to reach out to the voters, to their former supporters, and figure out how and why those 75 seats slipped from their hands and into their direct rivals.
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