July 12 and 13 saw contrasting fortunes for the two main political blocs in India – the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and the Congress-led Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA). While the NDA swept the Maharashtra Maharashtra Legislative Council (MLC) elections, winning nine out of 11 seats on Friday, the INDIA bloc secured 10 out of the 13 bypolls (five more than last time) held across seven states the following day.
Anybody’s Game In Maharashtra
The NDA/Mahayuti clinched nine seats out of 11, leaving the INDIA/Mahavikas Aghadi (MVA) with two seats. The latter’s third candidate failed to win. Although these elections are decided by MLAs rather than the public, the MVA aimed to build on their Lok Sabha momentum to win the third seat. However, cross-voting within the MVA helped Mahayuti secure all nine seats.
Ajit Pawar’s Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), which only managed one seat out of four in the 2024 general election, maintained its MLAs’ support. Despite claims by Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) Chief Sharad Pawar that around 19-20 MLAs were seeking to return to his party, this did not materialise.
Reports indicate cross-voting from the Congress, with seven MLAs supporting Mahayuti candidates, aiding Ajit Pawar and Eknath Shinde in overcoming the shortfall of first-preference votes for their second candidate.
The Congress emerged as a weak link within the MVA yet again as it initiated disciplinary action against its errant MLAs. The results underscore a lack of chemistry and coordination within the MVA regarding MLC elections.
The outcome indicates that the upcoming state elections in October-November this year will be fiercely contested, with outcomes far from assured. The key factor for both the Mahayuti and the MVA will be strategic ticket distribution and maintaining alliance unity.
Congress Boost In Himachal, BJP Loss In Bengal
In the by-polls across 13 seats, the INDIA bloc secured 10, while the NDA managed to bag only two, with one going to an Independent candidate in Bihar. The Congress gained four seats (a rise of two), the BJP two (a drop of two), and the TMC four (an increase of three); the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) and the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) retained their seats. These by-polls were triggered by the deaths of two MLAs, eight switching sides, and three resignations.
In Uttarakhand, the Congress won both seats, retaining Badrinath and gaining Manglaur from the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP).
In Punjab, the AAP retained its seat vacated by Sheetal Angural, who resigned and joined the BJP ahead of parliamentary elections. Angural finished second, losing by over 37,000 votes. Punjab currently has an AAP government.
In Tamil Nadu, the DMK retained Vikravandi with a margin of over 50,000 votes, with the AIADMK boycotting the contest. The BJP-backed PMK candidate was the runner-up. The verbal duel between Edapaddi Palaniswami and Annamalai didn’t favour the NDA, potentially leading the AIADMK votes to shift to the DMK to prevent the BJP’s rise. Tamil Nadu is governed by the DMK.
In Himachal Pradesh, the BJP won the Hamirpur seat by a narrow margin, with other seats going to the Congress. Himachal Pradesh currently has a Congress government.
Following the Rajya Sabha fiasco, where six Congress MLAs were disqualified, by-polls were held concurrently with the Lok Sabha polls in June 2024. The Congress had won four seats, and the BJP two. After these rounds, the Congress now holds 40 seats, while the BJP has 28 in the Himachal Pradesh assembly.
(Amitabh Tiwari is a political strategist and commentator. In his earlier avatar, he was a corporate and investment banker.)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author